Sunday, July 19, 2009

The Importance Of Saving Money

Thanks to D.D. for sending this one along.




Click here if video does not appear



The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

If We Could Only See Keiser vs. Whitney

Apparently, we have to go to Europe to find some financial programming worth watching.




Click here if the video isn't visible

The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Jack McHugh on BAC and Ken Lewis

It's amazing how our largest bankers are in the process of rewriting history to show that, at worst, they experienced a minor hiccup last year and never really needed any of the assistance provided by the government. This is obscene. Although I believe that these banks should have been temporarily nationalized in one fell swoop, there is little doubt that many of them would have failed were it not for the money and guarantees provided by the government. Jack McHugh offers some solid commentary on Bank of America's latest ploy to avoid paying the U.S. taxpayer for the government guarantee they clearly benefited from following their announced deal to acquire Merrill.


Jack McHugh:

Your word is your bond; a deal’s a deal. We all learn these lessons well before we become adults and pursue various ambitions. Even bankers live by this credo, especially when they are on the collecting end of a contract. Now comes Ken Lewis and the Bank of America, looking the American people straight in the face while claiming a deal isn’t a deal without a signed contract. I’m referring to the U.S. government guarantee of the assets BAC assumed after acquiring Merrill Lynch. Negotiated in the dying light of the Bush administration in January of this year, BAC trumpeted the news during a press release on January 16, containing, among other things, an awful Q4 earnings report (see stories below). The assets receiving this taxpayer-funded backstop amounted to $118 billion. It cushioned the blow of the earnings report and helped buy BAC the time it needed to raise fresh equity (which it did in May).

Coffers replenished, Mr. Lewis and his behemoth bank are trying to claim there is now no need for this guarantee, and besides, no full contract was ever executed. BAC wants to renege on paying the $4 billion it owes the taxpayers for the backstop, line of credit, insurance policy, or whatever we want to call it. “We didn’t draw on it, so we don’t owe anybody anything” seems to be BAC’s defense. I wonder if a similar defense would work if I decided not to pay my insurance premiums this year because my house has yet to burn down. And yet, the Charlotte-based banking house Mr. Lewis helped build was indeed smoldering, if not on fire back in January when he agreed to the deal and announced the following:

“In view of the continuing severe conditions in the markets and economy, the U.S. government agreed to assist in the Merrill acquisition by making a further investment in Bank of America of $20 billion in preferred stock carrying an 8 percent dividend rate.
“In addition, the government has agreed to provide protection against further losses on $118 billion in selected capital markets exposure, primarily from the former Merrill Lynch portfolio. Under the agreement, Bank of America would cover the first $10 billion in losses and the government would cover 90 percent of any subsequent losses. Bank of America would pay a premium of 3.4 percent of those assets for this program.
“On a pro forma basis, this additional capital would boost the company’s Tier 1 capital ratio to approximately 10.70 percent.” (source: BAC press release, January 16, 2009)

Remember these reassuring words you sent zinging around the world, Mr. Lewis? You wanted everyone to know that Uncle Sam stood behind you and that Bank of America would be one of the government’s hand-picked survivors of the financial crisis. Your stock closed at $8.32 on January 15, the day before this press release. This lifeline helped you raise fresh capital and your stock closed today at $13.42 — a tidy gain of 61%. And now you say you owe us nothing for this help, even though you announced the payment terms in your press release? What are you trying to claim — that you are invoking some sort of Material Positive Change clause?

Your “no signed contract” defense won’t wash, either. As any lawyer will tell you, contract law is based every bit as much on what two parties promise to do and how they perform on those promises. A signed piece of paper simply memorializes the deal and helps fading memories should a dispute arise at a later date. As your press release so clearly shows, we all know the agreed upon terms. We the People performed in allowing our leaders negotiate on our behalf; We let you make the claim We were behind you; and you used this claim to help ward off the demons that sank companies like Lehman Brothers. We performed; you and your company benefited. That, my friend, is a contract.

But if you still are unclear as to what I’m talking about, let me give you an example that hits close enough to home for you to understand. When BAC issues a company a revolving line of credit or a standby Letter of Credit, BAC receives both an upfront fee and an annual maintenance fee — WHETHER OR NOT THE LINE OF CREDIT IS EVER DRAWN UPON. If a client tries to renege on paying these fees because the line isn’t used, you would take them to court and demand payment.

Isn’t it bad enough that your poor stewardship of one of America’s premier banking franchises contributed to the mess we now find ourselves in? The financial crisis has cost taxpayers trillions of dollars and cost millions of workers their jobs. You’ve kept your job, Mr. Lewis, so do yourself, your shareholders, and the American people a favor and pay up. It shouldn’t require a U.S. Congressman to tell you it’s the right thing to do. Bank of America’s founder, A.P. Giannini, hated Wall Street in part because of behavior like this. I’m guessing he would be appalled to see what you’ve done to what he used to call “the people’s bank”. For Mr. Giannini, a deal was most certainly a deal, and his word was always his bond. Care to reconsider now, Mr. Lewis?

full link



The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

This Is What A Housing Bubble Looks Like






Click here if the video isn't visible


The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Goldman: Calling A Spade A Spade


It's nice to see the mainstream media put someone on the air (they must not have been privy to his message) who can see Goldman for what it really is - a highly levered hedge fund with access to cheap Fed money. Goldman would never admit it, but without government intervention last fall, they would have failed. Now, less than a year later and after having benefited from government funds and the government's decision to let Lehman fail, they're paying out $6.65 billion in compensation to employees. That's just for the second quarter. That comes out to about $225,000 per employee. Again, that's just for the second quarter. Our tax dollars at work.





Click here if video does not appear.




The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Meredith's Goldman and Banking Call

Yesterday's nice move in the market is largely being attributed to Meredith Whitney's upgrade of Goldman to a Buy as well as some positive comments she made about the short-term outlook for the banking sector. Meredith made a name for herself at Oppenheimer by being one of the first sell-side analysts to warn about the banks. She made a very good call, started turning up on CNBC regularly, left Oppenheimer, and started her own firm providing research on the financial sector. At the very least, we can call her savvy.

Americans are always in search of a new investment guru, and Meredith is one of the latest to wear the crown. Many have come before her, and all but a handful have flamed out. We all want to believe that one big call will lead to a steady stream of big calls, but the evidence just doesn't bear that out (remember Elaine Garzarelli). I suspect that when we are able to examine Meredith's investment recommendations over the next 10 years, we'll find that they were fairly average. In other words, I seriously doubt that she is the second coming of Warren Buffett (assuming Warren Buffett is in fact the first coming of Warren Buffett).

Back to her call. I listened to the interview and was underwhelmed. First of all, upgrading Goldman AFTER the stock had climbed nearly 200% from its low strikes me as a little late to the party. How can this be viewed as a timely or insightful call?

Also, many of the facts behind her call have been known for some time:
  • Less competition with Lehman gone. Hardly new news.
  • Goldman is big in the fixed income market, and struggling states will be issuing more debt. Widely known.
  • These stocks trade on a multiple of tangible book. Well, they were cheap on that basis months ago.
As for her short-term positive view of the banks, almost all of the benefits that she discusses are non-operating short-lived gains. She admits that the core earnings will remain generally punk. It's essentially accounting alchemy. We already saw this play out last quarter, and I imagine it isn't unexpected this quarter given the big move the financial sector has enjoyed.

This strikes me as a classic CYA marketing call. She begins by stating that "it's actually a bearish call, but a bullish call on the stock." She goes on to say that the financials could rally 15% (remember, they've already doubled from their lows). The fundamentals remain weak, but there are a lot of accounting issues which will help near term. Capital may get a boost near-term, but could turn down again a few quarters out. Put it all together, and there's something for everyone. It's the type of call which allows you to claim some success no matter what happens.

I don't know who Whitney's clients are, but if she's like most research shops, her clients include plenty of large institutional buy-side shops. Most of these firms are long-only shops. It isn't easy going back to your client base time after time and telling them she has no actionable ideas for them. At least now, she'll be able to "sell" Goldman.

One last side note. The reaction to her call is modestly distressing. It seemed we'd finally moved away from an environment where a personality (Cramer) could move stock prices by flapping his jaws. That would have been healthy. If investors were actually buying yesterday because of Meredith's call, this would be a step backwards. Bear markets tend to end with disinterest and loathing, not excited speculation.



The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Audit the Federal Reserve


Too few Americans understand what the Federal Reserve is and does. It is arguably the single most powerful organization in our country, yet few realize its impact on interest rates, the inflation rate, the value of the dollar, and the economy. At the very least, the American taxpayers should demand an audit of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, this has wide bipartisan support in Congress. Kudos to Senator DeMint for standing up for the audit and for pointing out the hypocrisy in the bill under discussion in the following video.




link to video

The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

While Rome Burns

I have to admit to being torn about the following article. On the one hand, it's simply outrageous that the Senate is actually spending time on such a ridiculous issue with all of the real problems this country faces. On the other hand, the more time they spend on such ridiculous issues, the less time they have to further screw up the economy.


From a CNN article:

A Senate subcommittee Tuesday tackled one of the most contentious issues in U.S. sports: the fairness of the Bowl Championship Series that decides the top college football team each season.

Convened by Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, the hearing by the Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights subcommittee provided a sounding board for his state's disappointment over the inability of the undefeated University of Utah to qualify for the BCS national championship game last January.

Full article here.




The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Quote Of The Day: Hedge Funds

Good line from Niels Jensen in defense of hedge funds:

"If you prohibit private investors from investing in hedge funds which on average use 1.5-2 times leverage but permit the same investors to invest in banks which use 25 times leverage and which are for all intents and purposes bankrupt, then you either don’t understand the world of finance or you don’t want to understand."



The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Sternlicht on Real Estate

Very good and balanced view of the real estate market. Good discussion of risks and an intelligent primer on how money is made in real estate. Video is about 27 minutes long.





link to video



The Market Rubbernecker is affiliated with Aspera Financial, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Please read the disclaimer on the home page of the Market Rubbernecker site.